Its proponents never fail to point out the
unique characteristics of the dry bulk freight market and a 1,400% rise in the
Capesize index in a month certainly reinforces the claim to its unusual status.
The fact that the recovery of the dry bulk
market is more akin to the patient sitting up and talking than a Lazarus-like
leap out of bed has been somewhat overlooked in the wave of enthusiasm.
The issues as ever are timing and
longevity. The supply-side has been propped up by iron ore prices and on the
demand side, an uptick in steel prices and production in China underpinned
positive sentiment. Iron ore stockpiles are high but not far off historical
averages.
Trouble is, the market has spent the week
wondering if the boom is having a blip and there was a nervous edge to trading
as the physical market began to feel a little patchy.
Cape FFAs were active all week but rates
felt under pressure. The Atlantic was busy with Vale taking numerous ships
while the Pacific saw better fixtures too. Buyers came back to provide some
support and the pressure was on physical to push on.
Thursday ended on a firmer note with
rumours of Tubarao/Qingdao fixing higher spurring buyers on. The sudden
slowdown in the physical might prove to be a breather rather than a full turn
south but time will tell.
Panamaxes had an up and down week too, and
after looking somewhat oversold in the face of a steadier physical market we
began to pull back some of the early loses by the end of the week.
The gains were gradual early on but we saw
some sharper buying towards the close on Q2 before sellers all but disappeared.
Good volume changed hands further out as Cal17 and 18 traded up and with Capes
finishing better bid, the tone remains positive.
Better bids on supramax paper too as
continued rumours of steady support on the physical side circulated during the
week. Traders have been cautious up to this point but the gains on the bigger
ships have set the tone. Along with stronger indices, the smaller ships saw the
quarters trading up while the back end finished up better bid but with less
trading.