China’s economic growth, which is slowing
down, will continue to be a driving factor for the global container trade
market, shipping players were heard saying at an industry conference.
The Chinese economy is projected to expand
by 6.5-7% in 2016, which is still considered a healthy growth even if it has
slowed down from the double-digit percentage increases in previous years.
“I have no
doubt in my mind that China will continue to be a very important export market,
and I find it hard to believe that the Chinese won’t be looking for ways to
stimulate their economy,” Soeren Andersen, ceo of Rickmers Maritime, said at
the TOC Asia conference held in Singapore on Wednesday.
He further observed that other Asian
countries like Vietnam is still a strong export market after China, while
Southeast Asia and South Asia are increasingly becoming important export
markets as well.
Robbert van Trooijen, chief executive, Asia
Pacific region, Maersk Line, noted that the Chinese container trade is
projected to grow only moderately. Chinese container exports are expected to
grow in line with global GDP of about 2.5% as outsourcing to China decreases.
The Chinese container imports are also
anticipated to decline as China shifts away from being a production hub due to
its lesser need for raw materials and industrial input. In view of an overall
softer support for shipping due to China’s slowing economic growth, the global
container shipping market will see the ripple effect of freight rates
continuing to stay deflated and suppressed industry profits, according to van
Trooijen.
But the widely acknowledged problem for
container shipping, regardless of economic growth, is the excessive tonnage
that is limiting any strong rise in freight rates. Rickmers Maritime’s Andersen
said scrapping has picked up pace over the past year, a development that is
important to reversing the ailing state of the container market.
Jonathan Beardm vice president, global lead
ports and logistics, ICF International, reiterated that the industry should
also address the oversupply issue by continuing to look at mergers and
rationalisation, as attested by the acquisition of Neptune Orient Lines (NOL)
by CMA CGM and the merger of China Cosco Group and China Shipping Group.